Photos: Football star, Asisat Oshoala signs on to Liverpool

20 year old current African Female Footballer of the year Asisat Oshoala this afternoon Jan. 23rd signed on to Liverpool Ladies football club. Asisat is the first African to be signed on the club.

A delighted Asisat had this to say about the new deal...

“Since I began my football career I have always dreamt of being a professional footballer so to be able to join the reigning Women’s Super League champions is absolutely fantastic. Liverpool Ladies are a massive Club who have some fantastic players who I believe can help to develop my game to the next level." she said. Congrats to her!

Government College Katsina Releases Buhari’s Academic Credentials

Premium Times has exclusively obtained the secondary school certificate examination results of Gen. Buhari from the Government College, formerly Provincial Secondary School, Katsina, where he graduated from in 1961. The results, according to PT, confirms Buhari’s claim that he undertook the University of Cambridge West African School Certificate Examinations and obtained five credits in English Language, Geography, Hausa Language, History, and Health Science.
Premium Times obtained the computer printout from Cambridge University as well as a statement of result, signed by the current principal of Katsina College, dated January 21, 2015.See it after the cut

Pictures from APC campaign in Kano

Photo credit: Sahara Reporters

WHY MANY NIGERIANS ARE MAD AT PRESIDENT JONATHAN

The reason many Nigerians are mad at President Jonathan and might vote him out in the coming elections is that so much was expected from him and he has delivered so little. Prior to his emergence as president, most Nigerians believed that what the country needed was a younger, well-educated leader. With his PhD, rags to riches story and age, he ticked all the boxes and people saw him as someone who could relate with majority of Nigerians who live in poverty. Jonathan campaigned as the poor boy who never had shoes, giving us his best Oliver Twist impression, we hope that after years in politics he has finally been able to buy a few shoes. The question is how many poor Nigerians has his administration been able to buy shoes for? And No! Militants don’t count.

Another reason people are mad at him is that he is actually the first President since the return of democracy in 1999 that Nigerians overwhelmingly voted for and emerged as winner. It cannot be overemphasised that Nigerians had high hopes for the country under his stewardship however things have not quite worked out as expected.

Economy

Jonathan’s apologists are quick to point to the emergence of Nigeria as the biggest economy in Africa. However, the economic upshot released to the general public before the oil price slump was largely due to the decision to rebase the economy and inclusion of previously ignored aspects of Nigeria’s economic set-up. Despite these variations, economic hardship still affects most Nigerians.

The other reason is that with democracy in any country comes foreign investments, foreign companies have reservations about doing business in economies without democracy because their investments can be nationalised as it has happened in Cuba and Zimbabwe. As long as a country is democratic and has long term prospects of remaining so, foreign investors would invest because they believe investments are secure and protected by international laws. To say President Jonathan has not done anything would be harsh, he has tried but he’s not done enough with the mandate given to him, he was supposed to be the saviour.

Challenges

Two things the president has been unable to deal with or present a coherent strategy for are corruption and insecurity and these are Nigeria’s main challenges. The present administration stands accused of some of the worst cases of corruption ever seen in Nigeria. A minister stands accused of spending 10billion naira renting private jets, there is the case of the of the missing $20b/$12b/$15b oil revenue funds depending on who you ask and there is the fuel subsidy saga for which no one has yet been prosecuted. While corruption is not new in Nigeria, the argument is if Jonathan cannot deal with this, what hope is there for the country? The sad case of Boko-haram, the missing girls (Bring-our-girls-back) and rampant killing of innocent civilians in Nigeria’s North-east is perhaps President Jonathan’s biggest failing. Nigeria’s military used to be the most powerful and admired in Africa with its successful involvement in peace-keeping missions all over Africa, how come it cannot then address the matter of a bunch of ragtag religious extremists in its own backyard? Everything boils down to motivation and if the army is not well motivated by adequate financial and material support, the buck stops with the President who is the C-IN-C of Nigeria’s armed forces.

Global oil and Nigeria

Nigeria chiefly depends on the oil industry, however oil prices are falling! While this happens periodically and prices usually goes back up, this has immediate implications on budgets.

While other countries have diversified sources of revenue and/or taxes, Nigeria’s other sources of income are negligible and taxes are not viable because the government invests little in the life of citizens. The present oil prices are caused by increased shale oil production by the USA.  Saudi Arabia which can influence prices by reducing production hence reducing supply has vowed not to reduce production meaning there is no end in sight for falling oil prices. While oil prices might go back up eventually, oil is a finite resource that would run out someday and it could potentially be rendered obsolete even before Nigerian reserves run out, as most western countries are developing alternative sources of energy either to combat pollution caused by fossil fuels or to be self-sufficient so as not to rely on potentially hostile suppliers that can decide to increase prices or even turn off supply for political reasons as is the case presently with Russia and the EU.  Other oil producing states like UAE and Qatar are already preparing for life after oil with extensive investments in alternative sources of revenue like tourism. Forbes estimates KSA has over $900b savings from oil revenue and in 2013 BBC estimated that by 2020, Norway’s sovereign funds would be worth $1trillion. Nigeria by contrast has $34.5Billion in foreign reserves according to Reuters.

Contender

The main opposition has fielded General Muhamadu Buhari, a Northern, Muslim, former military head of state as her presidential candidate. One thing is instantly clear about him, he is the only former head of state that is not stupendously rich despite being around government for a long time. Most people in power in Nigeria have a habit of enriching themselves at the nation’s expense. As a former military head, he should be able to bring the security issues in the north under control as his government partly did with the Maitatsine in the 1980s. His anti-corruption drives while in power are still referenced today, though some including Nobel Laureate, Soyinka have accused him of being heavy handed back then. It is assumed those measures were practical at the time and one would hope a democratic setting and the passage of time has tempered him, though hopefully not his ability to tackle corruption and promote fairness and holistic development. Others have accused him of being a religious fanatic, pandering to the Northern agenda, not promoting equality of women or associating with defectors from PDP and corrupt individuals. The simple answers to these are that as military HOS, he had more southerners and people of other religions serving as governors than Northerners. With regards to his present associates, it is a classic case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend, in any scheme of adult life, you don’t always have to have the same ideology or agree with people you deal with and this is more prevalent in politics. With regards to women, he is a Northerner of the older generation and I would hope he has evolved enough to understand the place of women in the world in the 21^st century and he has associates who will keep him right otherwise.

The elections

While I am of the opinion that leadership of Nigeria should be with the youths, who are the future of the country and we should not keep recycling past leaders, sadly we have not been presented with any viable alternatives and the incumbent has not justified why he should be given the mandate of the next four years. Sometimes to move forward we need to take a step back. If in four years Buhari has not met the expectations of the electorate, he should be voted out. One thing is fairly certain, he should be an upgrade on the present president and should be able to deal decisively with corruption, insecurity and some of our economic challenges.

The other reason why Nigerians must vote out the PDP is that it would send a clear message to politicians that they are judged on their performances and not on ethnicity, religion or party and also to prevent the situation in South Africa where African National Congress (ANC) is expected to win elections because of Mandela/Apartheid sentiments regardless of performance.

The World and Nigeria

Most western powers might not warm-up to the idea of having a Muslim president in Africa’s most populous nation because of some of the atrocities going on all over the world as a result of religious extremism, however Nigerians need to understand that no one has their best interest at heart like themselves. Whichever leader is right is who is right and whatever system of government works is what works and these decisions need to be made by Nigerians. How well is democracy working out in the US? The US President has governed more by executive action than legislation and leaders in Europe are more concerned about keeping their jobs than doing the jobs they were elected for. One thing is clear, with Buhari, Nigerians have a chance to put a decisive leader in place and they should take that chance. 

Is Buhari the answer? I do not know, that is a question that would be answered by most Nigerians in the coming weeks, one this is clear, most Nigerians are unhappy with the present set-up.

This article/opinion piece was written by Oladipo Osuntobo.

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science from O.O.U, Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Edinburgh Napier University and is currently a Doctoral student at Queen Margaret University researching “improving the effectiveness of the Nigerian public sector through adoption of merit pay and employee recognition schemes”.

10 key numbers to shape Nigeria’s economy in 2015

For more than four years, the Nigerian economy has expanded by an average of 6 percent, despite a home grown banking crisis, global economic collapse, insecurity, energy shortages and lack of movement on important reforms such as the deregulation of the downstream oil sector.

BusinessDay after speaking with analysts, economists and global strategists, has compiled a list of ten other noteworthy numbers (apart from the average 6 percent growth rate) the direction of which will shed light on where Africa’s largest economy is headed in 2015.

200: Naira to the dollar

The strength or weakness of the Nigerian currency is an indicator that affects everyone from real sector manufacturers to offshore carry trade investors looking to buy or sell naira denominated assets.

The Nigerian currency has been selling off versus the dollar since the retreat in oil prices began in mid – June 2014. This forced the CBN Governor Emefiele to devalue the currency by eight percent in November and widen its target trading band to N160-176 against the dollar, although the new level has been breached on the interbank FX market, given dwindling state oil revenues and declining reserves.

“We think an adjustment of the midpoint of the official rate, to NGN200/$1, (from 155 pre-oil price drop and 168 today) implying an overall devaluation of c. 30 percent is probable in the short term.

This could happen as soon as the 20 January MPC meeting,” said Renaissance Capital SSA Economist, Yvone Mhango, in a Jan 08 note.

Any breach of the N200 level will accelerate negative positioning and sentiment against the naira, as well as increase inflation due to Nigeria’s import dependent nature, analysts tell BusinessDay.

$30 bn

Nigeria’s gross Foreign Exchange (FX) reserves stood at $34.4 billion as at 12 January 2015 and is down nearly 20 percent from a year ago.

The CBN has burnt through reserves as it struggles to defend the currency and analysts believe the $30 billion level is a line in the sand, below which investors will lose confidence in the CBNs ability to defend the currency.

For stark comparisons, at the beginning of the 2008 global Financial Crises, Nigeria had FX reserves of nearly $60 bn, while its economy was half the size it is today.

20,000

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All Share Index (ASI) has lost nearly N4 trillion in market capitalisation since the sell-off in equities began last June.

The NSE – ASI closed trading on Tuesday 29,889 points and is down 13.76 percent already this year.

A look at its chart and technical analysis of the index shows there may be more sell –off to come, with the 20,000 points level showing up as the next major support level for the index.

$39

During the 2008 financial crises oil prices collapsed from $141 – $39 per barrel in a 6 months period. After which Brent began a gradual climb back to the $100 levels.

Saudi – Arabia, a major player in OPEC has signalled its intention to not cut output to support prices, even if oil hits $20.

Analysts say traders and Nigerian government officials will be watching the $39 mark (where oil bottomed in February 2009) to see if it signals a new bottom for the current shale induced sell-off.

Goldman Sachs reduced its six and 12-month Brent predictions to $43 a barrel and $70, according to a report released Monday.

“To keep all capital sidelined and curtail investment in shale until the market has re-balanced, we believe prices need to stay lower for longer,” Goldman analysts including Jeffrey Currie said in the report.

18 %

The Nigerian Debt Management Office (DMO) sold bonds to fund the government deficit at an average of 13 percent last year.

Analysts believe investors will demand higher yields from the DMO of up to 18 percent, to hold FGN bonds this year.

“The significant back-up in yields in the Nigerian fixed income market is a function of the lower oil price and recent capital flight, but in a sense, it also mirrors the lack of fiscal savings in the country,” Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy, FICC Research at Standard Chartered Bank told BusinessDay.

The DMO has released its provisional issuance calendar for Q1 2015, and seeks to raise (gross) between N215bn (US$1.17bn) and N305bn (US$1.66bn).

The FGN’s budget proposals project a deficit of N755bn for this year, and a contribution from net domestic borrowing of N570bn.

52 %

In the 2011 presidential elections, the incumbent PDP presidential candidate won 58.8 percent of the votes cast to emerge winner.

This year’s contest will be a much tighter race and will see anyone able to muster 52 percent of the votes doing just enough to squeeze through as winner, a political analyst speaking anonymously, told BusinessDay.

10 %

Nigeria’s inflation rate has been in single digits for close to two years and peaked last year at 8.5 percent in August.

“The headline inflation is yet to reflect the impact of the recent currency devaluation, as well as the new electricity tariff, due to the time lag between event and impact,” said research firm Financial Derivatives in a January 12 Economic Bulletin.

Investors will be watching to see if inflation begins to creep up this year to hit the double digits level (10 %) and what actions the CBN may take to mitigate higher consumer prices.

13 %

Nigeria’s benchmark policy rate was increased by 100 basis points to 13 percent after being held at the previous level for up to three years.

A further hike in the MPR in 2015 will be as a result of erosion of reserves and continued oil price slump. Manufacturers already groaning under high borrowing costs will be closely watching this indicator.

“This does not bode well for the 20 percent at the bottom, who are barely able to afford products that we already sell in N10 and N20 packages. They may be unable to afford any attempts by manufacturers to pass on increased costs to the consumer,” Keith Richards, chairman of Promasidor, a Nigerian manufacturer of consumer goods products said.

6,000

The figure (6,000) is the amount in MW of electricity Nigeria hoped to generate by December 2014, which however failed to materialise.

A 50 percent increase in electricity generation from year end 2014 levels of around 4,000 MW to 6,000 MW in 2015 will be significant for economic growth and productivity.

13,000

In its six-year campaign of terror,  the government says Boko Haram has killed more than 13,000 people.

Moving to decisively end this mayhem and war declared on mostly defenceless Nigerians, would give a significant boost to the economy and lives of people living in NE Nigeria.

PATRICK ATUANYA